BEYOND PROJECTION: Reimagining Scenarios as Stories
- Jared Nichols
- May 1, 2019
- 3 min read
Most strategic planning fails for one simple reason: we project today's reality into tomorrow's world. We ask how our current business model will fare in different future scenarios without questioning whether that model will even be relevant.
This fundamental flaw undermines most scenario planning. We assume our value proposition remains constant while only external factors change. But in reality, context transforms everything—including what makes us valuable to those we serve.
Reframing Scenarios as Stories
The solution begins with seeing scenarios not as analytical exercises but as stories unfolding over time. Everything changes when you approach the future as a narrative with characters, plot, and meaning.
In this story framework, you and your organization aren't the protagonists—the people you serve are. They're the central characters whose journey matters most. Your role is to support their success as the plot develops and challenges emerge.
This perspective shift reveals the limitation of traditional scenario planning. When you project current operations into future contexts, you miss how fundamentally your customers' needs might change.
You plan for a future where you remain static while only external factors evolve—a dangerous assumption in rapidly changing times.
Better Questions Lead to Better Futures
When you view scenarios as stories, you naturally ask more powerful questions:
How will the people we serve fare in this emerging narrative?
What new challenges will they face?
How might their definition of value change?
What role do we need to play in their evolving story?
These questions reveal your purpose more clearly than analyzing how current operations might perform in different economic or technological conditions. They connect your decisions today with meaningful impact tomorrow.
Scenarios Are About Now, Not Later
Despite focusing on future possibilities, scenarios aren't actually about the future—they're about what we do now. Scenarios help us make better decisions today by expanding our awareness of potential consequences and opportunities.
The real question isn't what the future holds but what story we create through our choices. How involved are we in directing this narrative toward outcomes that matter?
Are we passive observers hoping for the best, or are we active participants shaping what unfolds?
TAKE Action
Identify your key stakeholders or customers and place them at the center of your future thinking.
Create three brief "story scenarios" focusing on how their lives and needs might change in different futures.
For each story, define what role your organization would need to play to remain relevant and valuable.
Identify decisions you can make today that would prepare you for multiple story outcomes rather than just one.
Stop projecting today's reality into tomorrow's world. Instead, start creating stories in which you and those you serve can thrive, regardless of how the plot develops.
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